Saturday, September 7, 2013

Saturday morning update

This morning's polls:

  • Morgan 45.5 to 54.5 in the Coalition's favour
  • Newspoll 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour
  • Nielsen 46 to 54 in the Coalition's favour


Which gives an aggregation:







At this point in the blog, it is my normal practice to remind people that I anchor the above Bayesian aggregation with the assumption that the net bias across all of the polling houses sums to zero. You will need to come to your own view about where the actual level of collective systemic bias lies for all the pollsters. At the 2010 Election (with a different set of pollsters), the population voting intention was about one percentage point more in the Coalition's favour compared with the pollster average (see here). In light of the 2010 experience, it is arguably plausible to subtract (say) half a percentage point or more from the above aggregation to adjust for the collective systemic bias across all of the polling houses. [As an aside, you will note that Simon Jackman, who seeks to anchor his Bayesian models with respect to the outcome of past elections regularly produces an aggregated poll that tracks well below the vast majority of individual poll results]. 

If we limit our analysis to Newspoll and Nielsen.



The latest Newspoll



The latest Nielsen



My prediction? Yesterday I thought it might be in the high 50s for the number of seats won by Labor. Today, with this latest suite of polls, I suspect the low 50s for Labor is more likely. But the high 40s cannot be ruled out.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Thursday, September 5, 2013

Betting market update

This morning's 7.30am run revealed a swag of safe Coalition seats where Centrebet is not offering odds at the moment (bottom 13 rows). The results follow.

State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Brand WA 48.0 48.0 3.9 Labor ? ?
Lingiari NT 44.4 48.1 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Blair QLD 49.0 46.5 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Lyons TAS 42.8 51.7 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Kingsford Smith NSW 43.4 52.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Hindmarsh SA 52.5 43.5 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 52.8 41.5 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 43.4 52.9 3.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Page NSW 53.1 41.8 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Indi VIC 3.3 53.6 43.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McEwen VIC 55.4 40.3 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 55.6 40.5 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 56.4 38.0 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 38.0 58.3 3.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Franklin TAS 59.4 33.8 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bendigo VIC 62.3 31.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Melbourne VIC 62.8 2.6 34.6 Other Labor TRUE
McMahon NSW 64.2 32.7 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Moreton QLD 30.3 65.0 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Eden-Monaro NSW 30.4 65.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Richmond NSW 66.1 26.8 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Parramatta NSW 27.3 67.1 5.6 Labor Coalition TRUE
Brisbane QLD 27.5 67.8 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Rankin QLD 69.4 26.1 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Griffith QLD 70.3 24.4 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Flynn QLD 22.8 70.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bruce VIC 70.9 22.8 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 21.9 73.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
La Trobe VIC 20.5 74.0 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Wakefield SA 74.2 20.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Adelaide SA 75.3 19.4 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Oxley QLD 75.7 21.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Greenway NSW 21.1 75.8 3.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Solomon NT 18.3 76.5 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dawson QLD 17.5 76.6 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dobell NSW 15.6 76.7 7.7 Other Coalition TRUE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Fairfax QLD 5.1 78.3 16.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forde QLD 16.7 78.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 12.2 79.0 8.8 Other Coalition TRUE
Swan WA 16.9 79.2 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Robertson NSW 11.2 79.3 9.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 80.0 13.3 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Longman QLD 14.7 80.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Reid NSW 14.8 80.5 4.8 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Hasluck WA 15.0 81.7 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dunkley VIC 10.8 82.1 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 82.2 12.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 12.6 82.3 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Braddon TAS 12.6 82.6 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Leichhardt QLD 10.9 82.8 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hinkler QLD 6.5 83.1 10.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Herbert QLD 11.8 83.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Casey VIC 9.6 83.3 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Blaxland NSW 83.3 12.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Fadden QLD 7.7 83.5 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.9 11.0 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Gilmore NSW 9.6 84.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 10.6 5.0 84.4 Other Other FALSE
Deakin VIC 9.2 84.5 6.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Stirling WA 8.6 84.7 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Banks NSW 11.1 84.7 4.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Corangamite VIC 9.2 84.8 6.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bowman QLD 9.2 84.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bass TAS 9.9 85.4 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bennelong NSW 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Canning WA 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 86.0 9.3 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
McMillan VIC 8.0 86.0 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Canberra ACT 86.1 8.0 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 8.8 86.1 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 9.4 86.7 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 8.9 86.8 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sturt SA 8.0 86.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Boothby SA 8.1 87.1 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Macarthur NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 87.8 2.6 9.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 88.1 7.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Kennedy QLD 4.1 5.1 90.8 Other Other FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Berowra NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mackellar NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
New England NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Other Coalition TRUE
Parkes NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Riverina NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wentworth NSW NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Groom QLD NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Moncrieff QLD NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Murray VIC NA 0.0 0.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE

The summary results (on the favourite wins basis):

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 94.5 53.5 2

Cathy McGowan's chances have improved materially in the seat of Indi. Adam Bandt seems to be doing better in the seat of Melbourne. Clive Palmer's chances look unchanged in Fairfax. Andrew Wilkie looks safe in Denison and Bob Katter looks safe in Kennedy.

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

Wednesday: ReachTEL 48-52

Today's ReachTEL has the Coalition on 52 per cent (down one point from the previous ReachTEL) and Labor on 48 (up one). In terms of the primary vote: Palmer United is on 4.4 per cent nationally (and one guesses, much higher in Queensland).

ReachTEL, alone among pollsters, has Labor on the same TPP as it did when Rudd was initially restored in late June. It will be interesting to see if the other pollsters turn in a late flow to Labor


Moving to the Bayesian aggregation, and we are at one of those turning points where a single data point can significantly affect the aggregation. Will await confirmation from the other polling houses this week.





Tuesday, September 3, 2013

Betting market update

In past 24 hours Centrebet's individual seat market has moved two more seats in the Coalition's favour (on a favourite wins basis).

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 93.5 54.5 2

The individual seat probabilities follow:

State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Brand WA 48.0 48.0 3.9 Labor ? ?
Lingiari NT 44.4 48.1 7.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Petrie QLD 50.0 46.2 3.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Blair QLD 50.9 44.6 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Lilley QLD 44.9 51.3 3.8 Labor Coalition TRUE
Lyons TAS 42.8 51.7 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Kingsford Smith NSW 43.4 52.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Hindmarsh SA 52.5 43.5 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 52.8 41.5 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Page NSW 53.1 41.8 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
McEwen VIC 55.4 40.3 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 57.4 38.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Franklin TAS 59.4 33.8 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 60.2 34.2 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Brisbane QLD 32.1 63.1 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McMahon NSW 64.2 32.7 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bendigo VIC 64.2 29.9 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moreton QLD 30.3 65.0 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Eden-Monaro NSW 30.4 65.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Indi VIC 4.0 65.3 30.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Richmond NSW 66.1 26.8 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Parramatta NSW 27.3 67.1 5.6 Labor Coalition TRUE
Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Rankin QLD 70.9 24.6 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Bruce VIC 72.1 21.6 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Griffith QLD 72.8 21.9 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Melbourne VIC 73.0 2.6 24.5 Other Labor TRUE
Bonner QLD 21.9 73.0 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
La Trobe VIC 20.5 74.0 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Wakefield SA 74.2 20.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Adelaide SA 75.3 19.4 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Dobell NSW 16.5 75.8 7.7 Other Coalition TRUE
Greenway NSW 21.1 75.8 3.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Solomon NT 18.3 76.5 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dawson QLD 17.5 76.6 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Robertson NSW 12.0 77.9 10.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fairfax QLD 5.1 78.3 16.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forde QLD 16.7 78.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Longman QLD 16.7 78.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Oxley QLD 78.7 18.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 12.2 79.0 8.8 Other Coalition TRUE
Swan WA 16.9 79.2 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 80.0 13.3 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Reid NSW 14.8 80.5 4.8 Labor Coalition TRUE
Braddon TAS 14.8 80.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Hasluck WA 15.0 81.7 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Casey VIC 10.8 82.1 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dunkley VIC 10.8 82.1 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 82.2 12.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 12.6 82.3 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Leichhardt QLD 10.9 82.8 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hinkler QLD 6.5 83.1 10.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Herbert QLD 11.8 83.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Blaxland NSW 83.3 12.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Bass TAS 11.8 83.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fadden QLD 7.7 83.5 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.9 11.0 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 10.6 5.0 84.4 Other Other FALSE
Deakin VIC 9.2 84.5 6.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Stirling WA 8.6 84.7 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Banks NSW 11.1 84.7 4.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Corangamite VIC 9.2 84.8 6.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Bowman QLD 9.2 84.9 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bennelong NSW 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Canning WA 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gilmore NSW 8.0 85.8 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 86.0 9.3 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
McMillan VIC 8.0 86.0 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Canberra ACT 86.1 8.0 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 8.8 86.1 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 9.4 86.7 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 8.9 86.8 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sturt SA 8.0 86.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Boothby SA 8.1 87.1 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Macarthur NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 87.8 2.6 9.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 88.1 7.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
New England NSW 4.2 88.2 7.5 Other Coalition TRUE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parkes NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kennedy QLD 4.1 5.1 90.8 Other Other FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE

If I add probabilities in a similar manner to yesterday, I get

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 96 52 2

Monday, September 2, 2013

Monday evening update

Essential has released its latest poll data (recasting the four previous rolling fortnights as weekly data). While the pathway differs a little, the endpoint is in the middle of the pack.


Turning to the betting market: in aggregate, today's result (on a favourite-wins basis) is unchanged on Saturday's update.

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 91 57 2

The individual seat probabilities follow (expressed as a percent). Of note: Cathy McGowan (Independent) seems to be improving her odds in Indi.

State Labor Coalition Other current favourite change
Lingiari NT 46.9 45.6 7.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Brand WA 46.1 49.9 4.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Kingsford Smith NSW 50.5 45.3 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Lyons TAS 42.8 51.7 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Lilley QLD 52.6 43.6 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Hindmarsh SA 53.8 42.3 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Blair QLD 54.2 42.6 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Petrie QLD 54.8 42.1 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Capricornia QLD 56.3 37.9 5.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Page NSW 56.7 38.2 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
McEwen VIC 57.1 38.5 4.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Werriwa NSW 57.4 38.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Franklin TAS 59.4 33.8 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Barton NSW 60.2 34.2 5.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Brisbane QLD 34.5 60.8 4.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parramatta NSW 31.8 62.6 5.6 Labor Coalition TRUE
Moreton QLD 32.1 63.1 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
McMahon NSW 64.2 32.7 3.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bendigo VIC 64.2 29.9 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Eden-Monaro NSW 30.4 65.3 4.3 Labor Coalition TRUE
Indi VIC 4.0 65.3 30.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Richmond NSW 66.1 26.8 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Flynn QLD 24.8 68.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Chisholm VIC 69.4 24.8 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Bruce VIC 72.1 21.6 6.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Griffith QLD 72.8 21.9 5.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Melbourne VIC 73.0 2.6 24.5 Other Labor TRUE
Rankin QLD 73.5 22.0 4.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Bonner QLD 22.1 73.6 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
La Trobe VIC 20.5 74.0 5.5 Labor Coalition TRUE
Hasluck WA 22.3 74.4 3.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Newcastle NSW 74.9 18.0 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Dobell NSW 16.5 75.8 7.7 Other Coalition TRUE
Greenway NSW 21.1 75.8 3.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Solomon NT 18.3 76.5 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wakefield SA 76.6 17.5 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dawson QLD 17.5 76.6 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Melbourne Ports VIC 76.9 16.4 6.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Adelaide SA 77.4 16.5 6.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Perth WA 77.8 15.6 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Robertson NSW 12.0 77.9 10.1 Labor Coalition TRUE
Forde QLD 16.7 78.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Longman QLD 16.7 78.3 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Oxley QLD 78.7 18.0 3.3 Labor Labor FALSE
Throsby NSW 78.9 14.4 6.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Fisher QLD 12.2 79.0 8.8 Other Coalition TRUE
Leichhardt QLD 14.5 79.2 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Swan WA 16.9 79.2 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Fowler NSW 79.4 16.9 3.7 Labor Labor FALSE
Chifley NSW 79.9 14.6 5.5 Labor Labor FALSE
Fairfax QLD 5.1 80.4 14.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Reid NSW 14.8 80.5 4.8 Labor Coalition TRUE
Braddon TAS 14.8 80.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fremantle WA 80.7 13.4 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Makin SA 81.2 14.9 4.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Casey VIC 10.8 82.1 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Dunkley VIC 10.8 82.1 7.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ryan QLD 10.1 82.2 7.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Herbert QLD 12.7 82.2 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hunter NSW 82.2 12.6 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Macquarie NSW 12.6 82.3 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Jagajaga VIC 82.6 11.6 5.8 Labor Labor FALSE
Wright QLD 5.6 83.0 11.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hinkler QLD 6.5 83.1 10.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Blaxland NSW 83.3 12.7 3.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Bass TAS 11.8 83.5 4.7 Labor Coalition TRUE
Fadden QLD 7.7 83.5 8.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Ballarat VIC 83.9 10.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Isaacs VIC 83.9 11.0 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Batman VIC 83.9 5.7 10.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Sydney NSW 84.3 5.7 10.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Denison TAS 10.6 5.0 84.4 Other Other FALSE
Deakin VIC 9.2 84.5 6.4 Labor Coalition TRUE
Watson NSW 84.6 11.1 4.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Stirling WA 8.6 84.7 6.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Banks NSW 11.1 84.7 4.2 Labor Coalition TRUE
Corangamite VIC 9.2 84.8 6.0 Labor Coalition TRUE
Shortland NSW 85.2 9.7 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Cunningham NSW 85.4 8.7 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Aston VIC 8.7 85.4 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kooyong VIC 6.6 85.5 7.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bowman QLD 9.3 85.6 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lalor VIC 85.7 7.2 7.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Bennelong NSW 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Canning WA 9.9 85.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gilmore NSW 8.0 85.8 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Berowra NSW 6.7 85.8 7.5 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kingston SA 86.0 9.3 4.7 Labor Labor FALSE
McMillan VIC 8.0 86.0 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lyne NSW 8.8 86.1 5.2 Other Coalition TRUE
Canberra ACT 86.1 8.0 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Dickson QLD 8.8 86.1 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Hume NSW 7.3 86.3 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Corio VIC 86.4 7.3 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Flinders VIC 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cook NSW 6.7 86.5 6.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Lindsay NSW 9.4 86.7 3.9 Labor Coalition TRUE
Wentworth NSW 5.1 86.7 8.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maribyrnong VIC 86.8 7.3 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Cowan WA 8.9 86.8 4.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Sturt SA 8.0 86.8 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Higgins VIC 6.7 86.8 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Paterson NSW 8.0 86.9 5.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
McPherson QLD 6.8 86.9 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grey SA 6.8 87.0 6.3 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Gippsland VIC 6.8 87.0 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Barker SA 6.8 87.1 6.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calare NSW 7.3 87.1 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Boothby SA 8.1 87.1 4.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Bradfield NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Grayndler NSW 87.2 5.2 7.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Mackellar NSW 5.2 87.2 7.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
North Sydney NSW 5.9 87.2 6.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Goldstein VIC 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Scullin VIC 87.3 6.8 5.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Moore WA 6.8 87.3 5.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Holt VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hotham VIC 87.5 7.4 5.1 Labor Labor FALSE
Hughes NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Macarthur NSW 8.1 87.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Forrest WA 6.6 87.7 5.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wide Bay QLD 5.9 87.7 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mallee VIC 6.8 87.7 5.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Warringah NSW 5.2 87.8 7.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Charlton NSW 87.8 2.6 9.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Moncrieff QLD 6.9 87.9 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Calwell VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Gorton VIC 88.0 6.8 5.2 Labor Labor FALSE
Fraser ACT 88.1 5.9 6.0 Labor Labor FALSE
Curtin WA 4.2 88.1 7.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Murray VIC 6.8 88.1 5.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
New England NSW 4.2 88.2 7.5 Other Coalition TRUE
Gellibrand VIC 88.3 5.2 6.4 Labor Labor FALSE
Menzies VIC 5.3 88.4 6.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Cowper NSW 7.5 88.6 3.9 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mayo SA 5.3 88.7 6.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Mitchell NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Parkes NSW 6.9 88.7 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Tangney WA 6.0 88.8 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Port Adelaide SA 89.1 6.0 4.9 Labor Labor FALSE
Riverina NSW 6.9 89.1 4.0 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Pearce WA 5.2 89.2 5.6 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Maranoa QLD 5.3 89.4 5.2 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Farrer NSW 6.0 89.5 4.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Wills VIC 89.9 3.5 6.6 Labor Labor FALSE
Groom QLD 6.1 90.5 3.4 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Kennedy QLD 4.1 5.1 90.8 Other Other FALSE
Wannon VIC 4.4 91.5 4.1 Coalition Coalition FALSE
O'Connor WA 3.3 93.0 3.7 Coalition Coalition FALSE
Durack WA 3.3 93.9 2.8 Coalition Coalition FALSE

If, rather than count favourites, we add probabilities to see the likely outcome (and make the odd adjustment), we get the following outcome:

Coalition Labor Other
Seat count 95 53 2

And (for transparency) my adjusted calculations for adding probabilities (again expressed as percentages) follow:

Labor Coalition Other
Lingiari 50.7 49.3 0.0
Brand 48.0 52.0 0.0
Kingsford Smith 52.7 47.3 0.0
Lyons 45.3 54.7 0.0
Lilley 54.7 45.3 0.0
Hindmarsh 56.0 44.0 0.0
Blair 56.0 44.0 0.0
Petrie 56.6 43.4 0.0
Capricornia 59.8 40.2 0.0
Page 59.7 40.3 0.0
McEwen 59.7 40.3 0.0
Werriwa 59.7 40.3 0.0
Franklin 63.7 36.3 0.0
Barton 63.8 36.2 0.0
Brisbane 36.2 63.8 0.0
Parramatta 33.7 66.3 0.0
Moreton 33.7 66.3 0.0
McMahon 66.3 33.7 0.0
Bendigo 68.2 31.8 0.0
Eden-Monaro 31.8 68.2 0.0
Indi 0.0 68.0 32.0
Richmond 71.2 28.8 0.0
Flynn 26.5 73.5 0.0
Chisholm 73.7 26.3 0.0
Bruce 76.9 23.1 0.0
Griffith 76.9 23.1 0.0
Melbourne 74.9 0.0 25.1
Rankin 77.0 23.0 0.0
Bonner 23.1 76.9 0.0
La Trobe 21.7 78.3 0.0
Hasluck 23.1 76.9 0.0
Newcastle 80.6 19.4 0.0
Dobell 0.0 100.0 0.0
Greenway 0.0 100.0 0.0
Solomon 0.0 100.0 0.0
Wakefield 100.0 0.0 0.0
Dawson 0.0 100.0 0.0
Melbourne Ports 100.0 0.0 0.0
Adelaide 100.0 0.0 0.0
Perth 100.0 0.0 0.0
Robertson 0.0 100.0 0.0
Forde 0.0 100.0 0.0
Longman 0.0 100.0 0.0
Oxley 100.0 0.0 0.0
Throsby 100.0 0.0 0.0
Fisher 0.0 100.0 0.0
Leichhardt 0.0 100.0 0.0
Swan 0.0 100.0 0.0
Fowler 100.0 0.0 0.0
Chifley 100.0 0.0 0.0
Fairfax 0.0 100.0 0.0
Reid 0.0 100.0 0.0
Braddon 0.0 100.0 0.0
Fremantle 100.0 0.0 0.0
Makin 100.0 0.0 0.0
Casey 0.0 100.0 0.0
Dunkley 0.0 100.0 0.0
Ryan 0.0 100.0 0.0
Herbert 0.0 100.0 0.0
Hunter 100.0 0.0 0.0
Macquarie 0.0 100.0 0.0
Jagajaga 100.0 0.0 0.0
Wright 0.0 100.0 0.0
Hinkler 0.0 100.0 0.0
Blaxland 100.0 0.0 0.0
Bass 0.0 100.0 0.0
Fadden 0.0 100.0 0.0
Ballarat 100.0 0.0 0.0
Isaacs 100.0 0.0 0.0
Batman 100.0 0.0 0.0
Sydney 100.0 0.0 0.0
Denison 0.0 0.0 100.0
Deakin 0.0 100.0 0.0
Watson 100.0 0.0 0.0
Stirling 0.0 100.0 0.0
Banks 0.0 100.0 0.0
Corangamite 0.0 100.0 0.0
Shortland 100.0 0.0 0.0
Cunningham 100.0 0.0 0.0
Aston 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kooyong 0.0 100.0 0.0
Bowman 0.0 100.0 0.0
Lalor 100.0 0.0 0.0
Bennelong 0.0 100.0 0.0
Canning 0.0 100.0 0.0
Gilmore 0.0 100.0 0.0
Berowra 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kingston 100.0 0.0 0.0
McMillan 0.0 100.0 0.0
Lyne 0.0 100.0 0.0
Canberra 100.0 0.0 0.0
Dickson 0.0 100.0 0.0
Hume 0.0 100.0 0.0
Corio 100.0 0.0 0.0
Flinders 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cook 0.0 100.0 0.0
Lindsay 0.0 100.0 0.0
Wentworth 0.0 100.0 0.0
Maribyrnong 100.0 0.0 0.0
Cowan 0.0 100.0 0.0
Sturt 0.0 100.0 0.0
Higgins 0.0 100.0 0.0
Paterson 0.0 100.0 0.0
McPherson 0.0 100.0 0.0
Grey 0.0 100.0 0.0
Gippsland 0.0 100.0 0.0
Barker 0.0 100.0 0.0
Calare 0.0 100.0 0.0
Boothby 0.0 100.0 0.0
Bradfield 0.0 100.0 0.0
Grayndler 100.0 0.0 0.0
Mackellar 0.0 100.0 0.0
North Sydney 0.0 100.0 0.0
Goldstein 0.0 100.0 0.0
Scullin 100.0 0.0 0.0
Moore 0.0 100.0 0.0
Holt 100.0 0.0 0.0
Hotham 100.0 0.0 0.0
Hughes 0.0 100.0 0.0
Macarthur 0.0 100.0 0.0
Forrest 0.0 100.0 0.0
Wide Bay 0.0 100.0 0.0
Mallee 0.0 100.0 0.0
Warringah 0.0 100.0 0.0
Charlton 100.0 0.0 0.0
Moncrieff 0.0 100.0 0.0
Calwell 100.0 0.0 0.0
Gorton 100.0 0.0 0.0
Fraser 100.0 0.0 0.0
Curtin 0.0 100.0 0.0
Murray 0.0 100.0 0.0
New England 0.0 100.0 0.0
Gellibrand 100.0 0.0 0.0
Menzies 0.0 100.0 0.0
Cowper 0.0 100.0 0.0
Mayo 0.0 100.0 0.0
Mitchell 0.0 100.0 0.0
Parkes 0.0 100.0 0.0
Tangney 0.0 100.0 0.0
Port Adelaide 100.0 0.0 0.0
Riverina 0.0 100.0 0.0
Pearce 0.0 100.0 0.0
Maranoa 0.0 100.0 0.0
Farrer 0.0 100.0 0.0
Wills 100.0 0.0 0.0
Groom 0.0 100.0 0.0
Kennedy 0.0 0.0 100.0
Wannon 0.0 100.0 0.0
O'Connor 0.0 100.0 0.0
Durack 0.0 100.0 0.0