Saturday, August 29, 2015

Saturday betting market update

The betting market this week firmed a touch in the Coalition's direction. The Coalition is ahead (with bookmakers pricing the probability of a Coalition win between 55.0 and 57.7 per cent). But this is not a huge margin. The markets are saying that Labor has a little more than 4 chances in 10 of winning the next election.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-29 Betfair 1.68 2.23 57.033248
2015-08-29 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-29 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-29 Luxbet 1.68 2.15 56.135770
2015-08-29 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-29 TABtouch 1.71 2.09 55.000000
2015-08-29 William Hill 1.72 2.10 54.973822

Links to these houses can be found in the right column, towards the bottom of the column.


Opinion polls

Yesterday, ReachTEL published its third 47-53 result this month. Dropping this result into the aggregation yielded a Coalition TPP estimate of 46.8, a slight movement for the Coalition. The Coalition has been holding steady for a couple of weeks now.


Thursday, August 27, 2015

Essential

The most recent Essential poll 49 to 51 in Labor's favour (a two point move in the Coalition's favour in a fortnight) is a little surprising. It is not in line with the other polls. And it has affected the PollBludger's BludgerTrack. This difference can be seen in the right hand side of the next chart.


I am not sure this recent movement in the Essential poll series is anything but noise. But it is worth keeping an eye on.

While we are here, it is worth looking at how the Essential primary vote estimates are tracking against the Dirichlet aggregates (which, like the TPP aggregate above do not include the Essential polls).





Perhaps of most interest in the Essential primaries, is the Greens. Essential is not seeing the growth in the Green vote over this Parliamentary term the way others have seen it.

Tuesday, August 25, 2015

Polling update

Two new polls to aggregate this week:

  • Morgan poll (with preference distribution based on the previous election) was 46.5 to 53.5 in Labor's favour (and a one point move to the Coalition over the previous Morgan poll).
  • Newspoll was 46 to 54 in Labor's favour and unchanged on the previous Newspoll.

Collectively, these polls suggest the Coalition's recent decline has come to an end. But, the Coalition would not win an election with these poll results. We can see this in my usual aggregation model.



The plateauing of Labor's decline is evident across the models I run. All of the models are predicting a Labor win, were the election held now.


Primary vote aggregations (noting that the Other chart includes Palmer):






On the attitudinals, the Prime Minister appears to be trending down while the Opposition Leader is trending up.




The betting market provides an interesting counterpoint. Yesterday Luxbet moved in the Coalition's favour and this morning William Hill and TABtouch have moved in the Coalition's favour.


House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-25 Betfair 1.67 2.22 57.069409
2015-08-25 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-25 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-25 Luxbet 1.68 2.15 56.135770
2015-08-25 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-25 TABtouch 1.71 2.09 55.000000
2015-08-25 William Hill 1.72 2.10 54.973822

Sunday, August 23, 2015

Betfair

While my daily approach to collecting odds seems to work fine with the bookmakers, it is a little problematic with betfair. The betfair odds bounce around a bit -- even from minute to minute -- and my point-in-time daily collection may not be that representative.

This morning at 8.39am the Coalition odds (unadjusted) were $1.55. When I looked at the graph, I thought I had got something wrong in my data collection or math. I rechecked the odds at 8.45am: The Coalition was on $1.70. It was the same again at 9am. To be fair, I noticed similar volatility when I wrote the code to extract the betfair odds. The difference between the two sets of odds were probabilities of 58.9 and 57.1 per cent. I will run with the two times out of three for this morning's chart. Even on these odds, this is the third daily movement in the Coalition's favour from betfair.

The only other movement today was Luxbet, which moved a touch in Labor's direction.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-23 Betfair 1.67 2.22 57.069409
2015-08-23 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-23 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-23 Luxbet 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-23 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-23 TABtouch 1.76 2.04 53.684211
2015-08-23 William Hill 1.77 2.05 53.664921




Saturday, August 22, 2015

Betting market update

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-22 Betfair 1.70 2.22 56.632653
2015-08-22 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-22 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-22 Luxbet 1.68 2.15 56.135770
2015-08-22 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-22 TABtouch 1.76 2.04 53.684211
2015-08-22 William Hill 1.77 2.05 53.664921




Thursday, August 20, 2015

Betting update

When I checked the odds this morning, two more houses had lengthened their odds on the Coalition: Luxbet and Sportsbet (links in the right hand column, near the bottom).  Of the seven I follow, Crownbet is the only one still offering $2.25 on Labor.

The odds (including adjusted odds for Betfair) were as follows.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-20 Betfair 1.72 2.08 54.736842
2015-08-20 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-20 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-20 Luxbet 1.68 2.15 56.135770
2015-08-20 Sportsbet 1.73 2.15 55.412371
2015-08-20 TABtouch 1.76 2.04 53.684211
2015-08-20 William Hill 1.77 2.05 53.664921

And the chart ...


Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Betting market update

This morning as I checked the odds over breakfast, I noticed that Ladbrokes has lengthened its odds on a Coalition win. Yesterday morning Labbrokes was paying $1.65 for a Coalition win and $2.20 for a Labor win. This morning it was $1.70 and $2.10.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-08-19 Betfair 1.72 2.14 55.440415
2015-08-19 CrownBet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-19 Ladbrokes 1.70 2.10 55.263158
2015-08-19 Luxbet 1.66 2.20 56.994819
2015-08-19 Sportsbet 1.65 2.25 57.692308
2015-08-19 TABtouch 1.76 2.04 53.684211
2015-08-19 William Hill 1.77 2.05 53.664921

You will notice I have added the betfair exchange to the mix. The betfair odds reported above are the odds to back, which have then been adjusted to make them comparable with those from other houses. The adjustment builds in the maximum winning commission payable (5%). The formula for this is as follows:

\[adjusted = ((original - 1) * (1 - commission)) + 1\]

The charts follow (with the odds collected once per day, typically between 7am and 8am).