Friday, February 5, 2016

Betting market update

It's Friday, so it's time to update on the betting market. Over the past week Betfair has softened, but the other houses are unchanged.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-02-05 Betfair 1.14 5.75 83.454282
2016-02-05 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2016-02-05 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2016-02-05 Luxbet 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2016-02-05 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2016-02-05 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-02-05 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929





Friday, January 29, 2016

Betting Market Update

Pretty much the same as last week; which was pretty much the same as the week before; which was ...

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-01-29 Betfair 1.13 7.08 86.236297
2016-01-29 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2016-01-29 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2016-01-29 Luxbet 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2016-01-29 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2016-01-29 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-01-29 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929





Notes on my daily betting market collection methodology and analytical approach can be found here.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

Is Morgan cooling?

The three most recent Morgan poll results suggest a cooling in voting intention for the Coalition. Taking preferences distributed as they were in the 2013 election; Morgan has the Coalition's two-party preferred (TPP) voting intention as follows

  • 56 per cent for the period December 5/6 and 12/13, 2015
  • 55.5 per cent for the period January 2/3 and 9/10, 2016; and
  • 54 per cent for the period January 16/17 and 23/24, 2016

But I am a little cautious of the final result. It includes the weekend near Australia day. Because many households use the Australia day weekend as a long weekend, this can affect the comparability of polling results. And to highlight my caution, as we will see below, some of the primary vote results suggest significant movements in voting intention. It will be interesting to see how Morgan behaves in its next fortnightly print.

Notwithstanding this caution, adding these numbers to the aggregation, we get an estimated two-party preferred result for the Coalition of 55 per cent



Turning to the primary vote aggregations, we can see the more surprising statistics in the most recent Morgan print. Morgan had the Coalition's primary vote well down on recent polls (from 47 to 43.5). On the up-side we have the Greens (from 13 to 15) and the other parties (from 11 to 13.5). The Morgan symbol on these charts is the upwards pointing triangle.





Note: I have upgraded the analytical engine to JAGS 4.1.0. A description of the aggregation models can be found here.

Friday, January 22, 2016

Betting Market Update

Little change to report this week ...

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-01-22 Betfair 1.13 7.08 86.236297
2016-01-22 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2016-01-22 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2016-01-22 Luxbet 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2016-01-22 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2016-01-22 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-01-22 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929





Friday, January 15, 2016

Betting market steady

Little has changed in the past week ...

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-01-15 Betfair 1.12 6.89 86.017478
2016-01-15 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2016-01-15 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2016-01-15 Luxbet 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2016-01-15 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2016-01-15 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-01-15 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929





Friday, January 8, 2016

And back again

After moving a twitch in Labor's favour yesterday, this morning it moves back.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-01-08 Betfair 1.13 6.89 85.910224
2016-01-08 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2016-01-08 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2016-01-08 Luxbet 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2016-01-08 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2016-01-08 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-01-08 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929



Thursday, January 7, 2016

Small movement in the betting market

This morning, my daily trawl of betting markets revealed a slight move away from the Coalition courtesy of Luxbet.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-01-07 Betfair 1.16 5.94 83.661972
2016-01-07 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2016-01-07 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2016-01-07 Luxbet 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-01-07 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2016-01-07 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2016-01-07 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929