Friday, December 25, 2015

Betting Market Update

Merry Christmas!

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-25 Betfair 1.17 5.94 83.544304
2015-12-25 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-12-25 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-25 Luxbet 1.10 6.50 85.526316
2015-12-25 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-25 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929

According to their website, TABtouch is closed for Christmas Day.





Thursday, December 17, 2015

Betting market update

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-17 Betfair 1.15 6.13 84.203297
2015-12-17 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-12-17 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-17 Luxbet 1.11 6.25 84.918478
2015-12-17 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-17 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2015-12-17 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929





Saturday, December 12, 2015

Betting market update

Not much movement since Monday.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-12 Betfair 1.14 6.13 84.319120
2015-12-12 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-12-12 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-12 Luxbet 1.10 6.25 85.034014
2015-12-12 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-12 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2015-12-12 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929





Tuesday, December 8, 2015

Aggregated polling chart bonanza

The headline for today's Newspoll is unchanged on the previous fortnight: 53 to 47 per cent two-party preferred in the Coalition's favour. The big change today was in the attitudinal polling, with both leaders taking a hit.

Malcolm Turnbull: Satisfied 52 (-8), Dissatisfied 30 (+8)
Bill Shorten: Satisfied 23 (-3), Dissatisfied 61 (+4)

The Bayesian aggregation has flat-lined with this latest data point from Newspoll. We are estimating that the Coalition has 54.5 per cent of the two-party preferred vote. 



Across all of our models, we have similar message of plateauing in the TPP support levels for the Coalition.



In terms of the primary votes, our estimates (assuming that house effects across pollsters sum to zero) are as follows. Both the Coalition and Labor have flat-lined. The Greens are much as they have been since Turnbull's ascension (about 1.5 points down than where they were in the latter Abbott months).





The Other model above includes the Palmer United Party. Given Clive Palmer's recent financial troubles, a quick look at the stand-alone Palmer model follows.The "Beta" in the title of this chart is a reference to the beta-distribution, which the model uses.

At the height of its influence, Palmer was more than half of the Other party vote. Now, at 0.5 per cent of the primary vote share, my guess is that the Palmer United Party would not win a seat in either House at the next Election, should these polling figures persist.



Moving to the aggregated attitudinal polling.




Monday, December 7, 2015

Betting market update

Following the North Sydney by-election, we can see a further small decline in the probability for a Coalition win next election.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-07 Betfair 1.18 5.75 82.972583
2015-12-07 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-12-07 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-07 Luxbet 1.10 6.25 85.034014
2015-12-07 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-07 TABtouch 1.12 6.00 84.269663
2015-12-07 William Hill 1.11 6.50 85.413929




Friday, December 4, 2015

Betting market update

After a (B)rough week in Parliament for the government, the probability of a Coalition win at the next election has dipped slightly on betting markets (but remains highly likely).

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-04 Betfair 1.15 5.94 83.779972
2015-12-04 CrownBet 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-12-04 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-04 Luxbet 1.10 6.25 85.034014
2015-12-04 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-04 TABtouch 1.11 6.50 85.413929
2015-12-04 William Hill 1.10 7.00 86.419753









Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Updates

Yesterday's Morgan poll was unchanged on the previous Morgan poll: 55-45 to the Coalition with preferences flowing as they did at the previous election. The aggregation now stands at 54.8 for the Coalition to 45.2 for Labor.



Those of you with a keen eye will have noticed a slight change to the anchored models. Previously they were coded for three discontinuities. This has now been generalised in the code to two or more discontinuities. Also, I have removed the discontinuity I was applying for Shorten's promotion to the Leader of the Opposition. 

The betting market has moved a touch in Malcolm Turnbull's direction.

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2015-12-01 Betfair 1.15 6.89 85.696517
2015-12-01 CrownBet 1.13 6.00 84.151473
2015-12-01 Ladbrokes 1.15 5.00 81.300813
2015-12-01 Luxbet 1.07 7.50 87.514586
2015-12-01 Sportsbet 1.10 6.00 84.507042
2015-12-01 TABtouch 1.09 7.00 86.526576
2015-12-01 William Hill 1.08 7.50 87.412587