Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Markets and polls

I have added the latest Morgen poll to the analysis (which was unchanged on the previous fortnight with the Coalition on 52.5 to Labor's 47.5). The aggregated estimate of two-party preferred voting intention for the Coalition is 52.6 per cent (assuming house effects sum to zero).


Yesterday's Newspoll weighed on betting markets. Over the past week we have the following movements in the percentage probability of a Coalition win, as implied by the odds from each bookmaker.

% Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue
Betfair 85.10 83.45 83.58 85.57 85.10 85.10 82.22 81.45
CrownBet 85.41 85.41 85.41 85.41 84.27 84.27 84.27 84.27
Ladbrokes 83.08 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03 85.03
Luxbet 88.20 87.51 81.17 86.42 86.42 86.42 83.08 83.33
Sportsbet 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 82.83
TABtouch 84.27 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 82.83 81.17
William Hill 85.41 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15 82.71



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