Sunday, June 19, 2016

This morning's seat odds

I have found a simple way of tabling the individual seat odds, without the huge table I use for analytical purposes (my table has around 100 columns, with one for each of the parties/independents).

Sun 19 June
Adelaide (SA) Animal Justice Party $101.00
Family First $101.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.30
Lib Dem $101.00
Liberal $3.30
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Aston (VIC) Animal Justice Party $101.00
Australian Sovereignty Party $51.00
Coalition $1.05
Family First $101.00
Green $51.00
Labor $6.00
Lib Dem $101.00
Ballarat (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $12.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Banks (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.35
Family First $101.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Bob Spanswick) $151.00
Labor $3.00
Barker (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.05
Green $51.00
Labor $26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $7.00
Barton (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $8.50
Green $51.00
Independent (Rasmus Torkel) $151.00
Labor $1.05
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Bass (TAS) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.25
Green $51.00
Labor $3.75
Batman (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $34.00
Green $4.00
Labor $1.15
Bendigo (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $6.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.10
Bennelong (NSW) Arts Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Independent (Martin Mulcare) $51.00
Labor $12.00
Pirate Party $151.00
Berowra (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Independent (Mick Gallagher) $101.00
Labor $12.00
Science Party $151.00
Blair (QLD) Coalition $8.50
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Jonathan Emms) $151.00
Independent (Patricia Petersen) $151.00
Independent (Sandy Turner) $151.00
Labor $1.05
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Blaxland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $12.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Socialist Equality $151.00
Bonner (QLD) Coalition $1.10
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Jarrod Wirth) $151.00
Labor $4.50
Lib Dem $51.00
Boothby (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.18
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Nick Xenophon Team $4.00
Bowman (QLD) Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00
Coalition $1.10
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Labor $6.00
Braddon (TAS) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.50
Green $51.00
Labor $2.50
Bradfield (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Independent (Christine Berman) $151.00
Labor $12.00
Brand (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $8.50
Green $51.00
Labor $1.05
Brisbane (QLD) Coalition $1.50
Family First $151.00
Green $34.00
Labor $2.50
Lib Dem $51.00
Veterans Party $151.00
Bruce (VIC) Any Other $41.00
Coalition $4.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.18
Burt (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $2.70
Labor $1.44
Calare (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $101.00
Independent (Anthony Craig) $151.00
Labor $21.00
Lib Dem $51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $34.00
Calwell (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Canberra (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia $101.00
Coalition $12.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Canning (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Capricornia (QLD) Coalition $2.50
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Ken Murray) $151.00
KAP (Bob Katter) $34.00
Labor $1.50
Casey (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.05
Green $51.00
Labor $8.50
Chifley (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Ammar Khan) $151.00
Labor $1.01
Chisholm (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $3.30
Green $51.00
Labor $1.30
Cook (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $16.00
Independent (John Brett) $151.00
Labor $34.00
Corangamite (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.15
Green $51.00
Labor $5.00
Corio (VIC) Any Other $16.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.02
Cowan (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $2.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.75
Cowper (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Citizens Electoral Council $151.00
Coalition $1.17
Green $51.00
Independent (John Arkan) $151.00
Independent (Rob Oakeshott) $4.50
Labor $34.00
Cunningham (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $26.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00
Science Party $151.00
Curtin (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Dawson (QLD) Coalition $1.17
Family First $151.00
Glenn Lazarus Team $101.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Stephen Large) $151.00
KAP (Bob Katter) $41.00
Labor $4.00
Deakin (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.35
Green $34.00
Labor $3.00
Denison (TAS) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $21.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Andrew Wilkie) $1.01
Labor $12.00
Dickson (QLD) Coalition $1.10
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Thor Prohaska) $81.00
Labor $6.00
Lib Dem $51.00
Dobell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $3.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Gregory Stephenson) $151.00
Independent (Paul Baker) $151.00
Labor $1.35
Pauline Hanson $151.00
Dunkley (VIC) Any Other $41.00
Coalition $1.30
Green $51.00
Labor $3.30
Durack (WA) Any Other $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $34.00
Liberal $1.08
National $7.00
Eden Monaro (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $2.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Andrew Thaler) $151.00
Independent (Daniel Grosmaire) $151.00
Independent (Ray Buckley) $151.00
Labor $1.75
Veterans Party $151.00
Fadden (QLD) Coalition $1.01
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Pauline Hanson $51.00
Veterans Party $151.00
Fairfax (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Farrer (NSW) Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Independent (Brian Mills) $151.00
Labor $21.00
Mature Australia $151.00
Fenner (ACT) Bullet Train for Australia $101.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Andrew Woodman) $101.00
Labor $1.01
Fisher (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $12.00
Flinders (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Flynn (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.20
Green $51.00
Labor $4.20
Forde (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.50
Green $51.00
Labor $2.50
Forrest (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Fowler (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $21.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Smokers Rights $151.00
Franklin (TAS) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $7.00
Green $21.00
Labor $1.07
Fremantle (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $34.00
Green $7.00
Labor $1.03
Gelibrand (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $26.00
Green $16.00
Labor $1.01
Gilmore (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.30
Green $51.00
Labor $3.30
Gippsland (VIC) Any Other $16.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $34.00
Goldstein (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Gorton (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Grayndler (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Australian Cyclists $101.00
Australian Sex Party $101.00
Christian Democratic Party $151.00
Coalition $26.00
Drug Law Reform $151.00
Green $4.33
Labor $1.15
Renewable Energy Party $101.00
Science Party $1001.00
Socialist Equality $151.00
Greenway (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $151.00
Coalition $4.00
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Avtar Singh Billu) $151.00
Labor $1.15
Lib Dem $101.00
Science Party $151.00
Grey (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.27
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Nick Xenophon Team $3.00
Griffith (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $7.00
Green $34.00
Labor $1.07
Groom (QLD) Any Other $16.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $26.00
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Hasluck (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.87
Green $51.00
Labor $1.87
Herbert (QLD) Any Other $17.00
Coalition $1.15
Green $51.00
Labor $5.00
PUP $51.00
Higgins (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.10
Green $6.00
Labor $21.00
Nick Xenophon Team $51.00
Hindmarsh (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.30
Green $51.00
Labor $3.30
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Hinkler (QLD) Any Other $15.00
Coalition $1.08
Green $51.00
Labor $6.00
Holt (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Hotham (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Hughes (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Hume (NSW) Bullet Train for Australia $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Citizens Electoral Council $151.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $15.00
Hunter(NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Arjay Martin) $151.00
Independent (Cordelia Troy) $101.00
Independent (John Harvey) $151.00
Independent (John Warham) $151.00
Labor $1.01
Indi (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Cathy McGowan) $1.15
Labor $34.00
Liberal $11.00
National $6.00
Isaacs (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Jagajaga (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Kennedy (QLD) Coalition $12.00
Family First $101.00
Green $51.00
KAP (Bob Katter) $1.01
Labor $26.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $8.50
Green $51.00
Labor $1.05
Science Party $151.00
Kingston (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $12.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.07
Nick Xenophon Team $7.00
Kooyong (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
La Trobe (Vic) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.50
Green $51.00
Labor $2.50
Lalor (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Leichhardt (QLD) Any Other $21.00
Coalition $1.25
Green $51.00
Labor $3.70
Lilley (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $8.50
Green $51.00
Labor $1.05
Lindsay (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Australia First $151.00
Australian Liberty Alliance $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.10
Derryn Hinch $81.00
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Marcus Cornish) $51.00
Labor $6.00
Nick Xenophon Team $31.00
Lingiari (NT) Citizens Electoral Council $151.00
Coalition $4.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Alfred Gould) $151.00
Independent (Braedon Earley) $101.00
Independent (Mark Guyula) $151.00
Labor $1.22
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Shooters $101.00
Longman (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.20
Green $51.00
Labor $4.00
Lyne (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $26.00
Independent (Brad Christensen) $151.00
Independent (Roger John Riach) $151.00
Labor $26.00
Lyons (TAS) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.60
Green $51.00
Labor $2.20
Macarthur (NSW) Coalition $2.25
Green $51.00
Labor $1.60
Nick Xenophon Team $16.00
Mackellar (NSW) Coalition $1.01
Green $26.00
Independent (Jim Ball) $12.00
Independent (Julie Hegarty) $101.00
Independent (Liam Gavin $51.00
Labor $21.00
Macquarie (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.28
Derryn Hinch $51.00
Green $26.00
Labor $3.10
Lib Dem $81.00
Shooters $101.00
Makin (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.08
Nick Xenophon Team $7.00
Mallee (VIC) Any Other $16.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $21.00
Maranoa (QLD) Any Other $12.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $21.00
Maribyrnong (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Mayo (SA) Any Other $51.00
Coalition $1.87
Green $51.00
Labor $51.00
Nick Xenophon Team $1.87
McEwen (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $8.50
Green $51.00
Labor $1.05
McMahon (NSW) Australia First $151.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Fadhel Shamasha) $151.00
Labor $1.01
McMillan (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
McPherson (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Melbourne (VIC) Any Other $26.00
Coalition $34.00
Green $1.05
Labor $9.00
Melbourne Ports (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $8.00
Green $10.00
Labor $1.08
Menzies (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $26.00
Stephen Mayne (Independent) $11.00
Mitchell (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Moncrieff (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Moore (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Moreton (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $8.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Nick Xenophon Team $21.00
Murray (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Green $51.00
Labor $26.00
Liberal $1.35
National $3.00
New England (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.30
CountryMinded $101.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Philip Cox) $101.00
Independent (Rob Taber) $101.00
Independent (Tony Windsor) $3.30
Labor $34.00
Lib Dem $151.00
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Newcastle (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $16.00
Democratic Labour Party $101.00
Drug Law Reform $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Rod Holding) $151.00
Labor $1.01
North Sydney (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Stephen Ruff) $21.00
Labor $16.00
Lib Dem $51.00
Science Party $151.00
O'Connor (WA) Any Other $34.00
Green $51.00
Labor $21.00
Liberal $1.10
National $6.00
Oxley (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $8.50
Green $51.00
Labor $1.05
Page (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.87
Green $51.00
Labor $1.87
Lib Dem $51.00
Parkes (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $26.00
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Parramatta (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $6.00
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Mahesh Raj) $151.00
Labor $1.10
Lib Dem $51.00
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Paterson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Citizens Electoral Council $151.00
Coalition $3.75
Green $26.00
Labor $1.25
Pauline Hanson $101.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Pearce (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $12.00
Perth (WA) Any Other $51.00
Coalition $8.00
Green $26.00
Labor $1.03
Petrie (QLD) Any Other $26.00
Coalition $3.75
Green $41.00
Labor $1.25
Port Adelaide (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $26.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Nick Xenophon Team $12.00
Rankin (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Reid (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.25
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Labor $3.75
Richmond (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $5.00
Green $11.00
Labor $1.15
Pauline Hanson $101.00
Riverina (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Family First $151.00
Green $51.00
Independent (Richard Foley) $151.00
Labor $21.00
Robertson (NSW) Anti-Paedophile Party (Lawrie Higgins) $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.25
Green $51.00
Independent (Van Davy) $34.00
Labor $3.75
Lib Dem $51.00
Ryan (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00
Scullin (VIC) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $26.00
Green $16.00
Labor $1.01
Shortland (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Solomon (NT) Australia First $151.00
Citizens Electoral Council $151.00
Coalition $2.40
Green $41.00
HEMP Party $151.00
Independent (Mark Garner) $101.00
Labor $1.55
Lib Dem $151.00
Rise Up Australia $151.00
Shooters $151.00
Stirling (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.17
Green $51.00
Labor $4.50
Sturt (SA) Coalition $1.15
Green $51.00
Labor $11.00
Nick Xenophon Team $5.00
Swan (WA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.87
Green $51.00
Labor $1.87
Sydney (NSW) Animal Justice Party $151.00
Australian Sex Party $101.00
Christian Democratic Party $151.00
Coalition $34.00
Green $8.00
Labor $1.05
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Science Party $151.00
Socialist Alliance $151.00
Sustainable Australia $151.00
Tangney (WA) Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Independent (Dennis Jensen) $16.00
Labor $34.00
Wakefield (SA) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $16.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.10
Nick Xenophon Team $6.00
Wannon (VIC) Any Other $16.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $34.00
Warringah (NSW) Arts Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.02
Green $51.00
Independent (David Barrow) $151.00
Independent (James Mathison) $9.00
Independent (Tony Backhouse) $151.00
Labor $21.00
Nick Xenophon Team $11.00
Science Party $151.00
Watson (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $21.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.01
Online Direct Democracy $151.00
Science Party $151.00
Wentworth (NSW) Arts Party $151.00
Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Independent (Allen David) $151.00
Independent (Marc Aussie $1001.00
Labor $21.00
Science Party $151.00
Werriwa (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $6.00
Green $51.00
Labor $1.10
Whitlam (NSW) Christian Democratic Party $101.00
Coalition $34.00
Green $16.00
Labor $1.01
Non Custodial Parents Party $151.00
Wide Bay (QLD) Any Other $16.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $34.00
Labor $12.00
Wills (VIC) Any Other $51.00
Coalition $34.00
Green $6.00
Labor $1.10
Wright (QLD) Any Other $34.00
Coalition $1.01
Green $51.00
Labor $16.00

Full list of seats where the odds have changed on yesterday
Ranked by Closeness Win Probability (%)
Sun 19 June Sat 18 June Change in Rank Any Other Coalition Green Ind Katter Labor NXT
Mayo (SA) 1 15 -14 1.74 47.39 1.74 0.0 0.0 1.74 47.39
Hasluck (WA) 1 6 -5 2.63 47.81 1.75 0.0 0.0 47.81 0.00
Macarthur (NSW) 8 10 -2 0.00 38.60 1.70 0.0 0.0 54.27 5.43
Brisbane (QLD) 10 3 7 2.91 59.05 2.61 0.0 0.0 35.43 0.00
Adelaide (SA) 21 63 -42 2.45 24.99 1.62 0.0 0.0 63.44 7.50
Hindmarsh (SA) 22 16 6 2.43 63.46 1.62 0.0 0.0 25.00 7.50
Dunkley (VIC) 25 8 17 2.18 68.91 1.76 0.0 0.0 27.15 0.00
Robertson (NSW) 27 18 9 5.69 69.46 1.70 0.0 0.0 23.15 0.00
Boothby (SA) 33 39 -6 2.43 70.10 1.62 0.0 0.0 5.17 20.68
Greenway (NSW) 40 47 -7 3.10 21.27 1.67 0.0 0.0 73.97 0.00
Herbert (QLD) 47 30 17 6.72 74.47 1.68 0.0 0.0 17.13 0.00
Bonner (QLD) 48 42 6 2.78 76.80 1.66 0.0 0.0 18.77 0.00

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