Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Newspoll: two good polls in a row for the government

This is the second Newspoll in a row where the Government's fortunes have improved.

For the data visualiser, today's data is difficult. Compared with the Henderson moving average, the LOESS regression approach to identifying an underlying trend is more responsive to data points at the end of a series. This means LOESS picks trend changes earlier than Henderson; but LOESS also has more false positives in identifying turning points in the trend (with the hindsight perspective of subsequent data points).

To be fair, I will give you both sets today. You can decide whether the Government's revival is at hand.

There is less disagreement in the trends with the satisfaction polling.