Tuesday, March 27, 2012


The latest Newspoll sees big movement in voting intention but little or no movement in the attitudinal responses. The headline result was 43-57 two-party preferred voting intention in favour of the Coalition. Where the attitudinals have moved, it is in the opposite direction to voting intention. Go figure.

I suspect the six-month loess trend is overly influenced by the latest data point. The 13-term Henderson moving average is less affected. It will be interesting to see whether this latest data point is random noise or a turning point.