Friday, April 15, 2016

ReachTEL at 50-50

The latest ReachTEL has landed with a headline estimate of 50-50 for the two part preferred vote share. Plugging these numbers into my usual aggregation (which assumes that collectively the house effects on average cancel each other out) yields an estimated two-party preferred vote share for the Coalition of 50.5 per cent.

The primary vote aggregation (on the same basis) shows a decline in the Coalition vote and an increase in Labor's vote.The Green vote appears to be sliding while the "other" vote improves (possibly on the back of pollsters now asking explicit questions on team Xenophon).

The attitudinal polling shows a recent decline for Turnbull and an improvement for Shorten. We will start with the raw results before moving to the aggregated results.

Methodological notes on the Bayesian aggregation can be found here.

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