Saturday, May 21, 2016

ReachTel 50-50; Ipsos 51-49

Two new polls in the past 24 hours:
  • The Ipsos poll of 1497 respondents between 17-19 May had the Coalition on 51 to Labor's 49.
  • The ReachTEL poll of 2407 respondents on 19 May had the Coalition and Labor on 50.

Placing these numbers into the standard aggregation model, yields an estimated national voting intention of 49.9 for the Coalition to 50.1 to Labor - a dead heat.



The primary vote aggregation (and implied national TPP vote using preferences from the last election) follow.






Update

The complete set of Sportsbet seat betting market tables follow.

Election outcome based on all favourites winning their seat

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team
0.0 80.5 1.0 2.0 1.0 65.5 0.0

A list of seats with equal favourites

Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 0.0 0.0 45.69 0.0 Coalition, Labor

Complete list of Seat Odds

$ 1 Territory Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 4.00 21.00 - - 1.33 - - 9.0
Aston (VIC) - 34.0 1.05 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Ballarat (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Banks (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Barker (SA) - 26.0 1.05 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 7.0
Barton (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Bass (TAS) - 26.0 1.25 26.00 - - 3.75 - - -
Batman (VIC) - 26.0 26.00 3.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Bendigo (VIC) - 26.0 6.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Bennelong (NSW) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Berowra (NSW) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Blair (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 26.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Blaxland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Bonner (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.30 - - -
Boothby (SA) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 7.50 - - 6.0
Bowman (QLD) - 17.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.50 - - -
Braddon (TAS) - 21.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.60 - - -
Bradfield (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Brand (WA) - 26.0 13.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Brisbane (QLD) - 26.0 1.62 21.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Bruce (VIC) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Burt (WA) - 34.0 2.25 - - - 1.60 - - -
Calare (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 16.0
Calwell (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Canberra (ACT) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Canning (WA) - 26.0 1.10 26.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Capricornia (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 26.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Casey (VIC) - 26.0 1.17 26.00 - - 4.50 - - -
Chifley (NSW) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Chisholm (VIC) - 26.0 6.50 21.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Cook (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Corangamite (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 21.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Corio (VIC) - 16.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.02 - - -
Cowan (WA) - 26.0 1.67 26.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Cowper (NSW) - 11.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Cunningham (NSW) - 13.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Curtin (WA) - 26.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Dawson (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - -
Deakin (VIC) - 26.0 1.75 15.00 - - 2.00 - - -
Denison (TAS) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 1.10 - 6.00 - - -
Dickson (QLD) - 26.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - -
Dobell (NSW) - 34.0 2.50 34.00 - - 1.50 - - -
Dunkley (VIC) - 41.0 1.58 31.00 - - 2.40 - - -
Durack (WA) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Eden Monaro (NSW) - 51.0 2.00 51.00 - - 1.75 - - -
Fadden (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 26.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Fairfax (QLD) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Farrer (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 21.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Fenner (ACT) - 21.0 16.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Fisher (QLD) - 17.0 1.10 21.00 - - 7.50 - - -
Flinders (VIC) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Flynn (QLD) - 16.0 1.30 34.00 - - 3.30 - - -
Forde (QLD) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.50 - - -
Forrest (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Fowler (NSW) - 16.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Franklin (TAS) - 26.0 8.00 11.00 - - 1.07 - - -
Fremantle (WA) - 26.0 13.00 4.20 - - 1.20 - - -
Gelibrand (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 12.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Gilmore (NSW) - 31.0 1.45 26.00 - - 2.50 - - -
Gippsland (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Goldstein (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 34.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Gorton (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 16.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Grayndler (NSW) - 26.0 17.00 3.35 - - 1.30 - - -
Greenway (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.12 - - -
Grey (SA) - 26.0 1.02 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 16.0
Griffith (QLD) - 34.0 6.00 23.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Groom (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - 21.0
Hasluck (WA) - 26.0 2.00 21.00 - - 1.70 - - -
Herbert (QLD) - 21.0 1.30 26.00 - - 3.50 - - -
Higgins (VIC) - 26.0 1.15 7.50 - - 16.00 - - 11.0
Hindmarsh (SA) - 26.0 2.50 26.00 - - 1.75 - - 7.5
Hinkler (QLD) - 15.0 1.15 26.00 - - 5.00 - - -
Holt (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Hotham (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Hughes (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Hume (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 15.00 - - -
Hunter(NSW) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Indi (VIC) - 26.0 - 51.00 1.15 - 16.00 11.0 6.0 -
Isaacs (VIC) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Jagajaga (VIC) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Kennedy (QLD) - 26.0 4.25 26.00 - 1.2 21.00 - - -
Kingsford Smith (NSW) - 26.0 8.50 11.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Kingston (SA) - 26.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - 8.0
Kooyong (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
La Trobe (Vic) - 26.0 1.60 21.00 - - 2.25 - - -
Lalor (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Leichhardt (QLD) - 12.0 1.35 26.00 - - 3.00 - - -
Lilley (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Lindsay (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 21.00 - - 2.40 - - 16.0
Lingiari (NT) 51.0 26.0 3.00 21.00 - - 1.30 - - -
Longman (QLD) - 26.0 1.20 26.00 - - 4.00 - - -
Lyne (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - -
Lyons (TAS) - 16.0 1.55 26.00 - - 2.35 - - -
Macarthur (NSW) - 21.0 2.00 34.00 - - 1.75 - - 16.0
Mackellar (NSW) - - 1.01 26.00 12.00 - 21.00 - - -
Macquarie (NSW) - 26.0 1.50 26.00 - - 2.20 - - -
Makin (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 7.0
Mallee (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Maranoa (QLD) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Maribyrnong (VIC) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Mayo (SA) - 21.0 1.10 31.00 - - 31.00 - - 5.0
McEwen (VIC) - 26.0 3.40 21.00 - - 1.30 - - -
McMahon (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
McMillan (VIC) - 21.0 1.02 26.00 - - 11.00 - - -
McPherson (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Melbourne (VIC) - 26.0 21.00 1.05 - - 9.00 - - -
Melbourne Ports (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 5.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Menzies (VIC) - 26.0 1.01 26.00 11.00 - 26.00 - - -
Mitchell (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Moncrieff (QLD) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Moore (WA) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 12.00 - - -
Moreton (QLD) - 26.0 8.50 21.00 - - 1.05 - - 16.0
Murray (VIC) - 16.0 - 26.00 - - 21.00 2.1 1.6 -
New England (NSW) - 26.0 1.30 26.00 2.75 - 26.00 - - -
Newcastle (NSW) - 17.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.04 - - -
North Sydney (NSW) - 21.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - -
O'Connor (WA) - 16.0 1.01 21.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Oxley (QLD) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Page (NSW) - 26.0 1.75 11.00 - - 2.30 - - -
Parkes (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 26.00 - - -
Parramatta (NSW) - 26.0 5.00 26.00 - - 1.10 - - -
Paterson (NSW) - 17.0 3.75 26.00 - - 1.25 - - -
Pearce (WA) - 26.0 1.20 21.00 - - 4.20 - - -
Perth (WA) - 51.0 8.00 21.00 - - 1.03 - - -
Petrie (QLD) - 26.0 3.00 41.00 - - 1.35 - - -
Port Adelaide (SA) - 26.0 21.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - 11.0
Rankin (QLD) - 21.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Reid (NSW) - 26.0 1.63 26.00 - - 2.05 - - -
Richmond (NSW) - 26.0 4.50 5.00 - - 1.45 - - -
Riverina (NSW) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Robertson (NSW) - 34.0 1.57 7.00 - - 2.25 - - -
Ryan (QLD) - 26.0 1.10 16.00 - - 6.00 - - -
Scullin (VIC) - 26.0 16.00 8.00 - - 1.05 - - -
Shortland (NSW) - 26.0 12.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Solomon (NT) - 26.0 2.50 26.00 101.00 - 1.50 - - -
Stirling (WA) - 26.0 1.44 26.00 - - 2.55 - - -
Sturt (SA) - - 1.15 26.00 - - 7.00 - - 5.0
Swan (WA) - 26.0 1.87 16.00 - - 1.87 - - -
Sydney (NSW) - 26.0 21.00 5.00 - - 1.17 - - -
Tangney (WA) - - 1.01 21.00 12.00 - 26.00 - - -
Wakefield (SA) - 26.0 16.00 26.00 - - 1.08 - - 6.0
Wannon (VIC) - 12.0 1.01 26.00 - - 21.00 - - -
Warringah (NSW) - 9.0 1.06 26.00 - - 21.00 - - 8.0
Watson (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Wentworth (NSW) - 16.0 1.01 16.00 - - 16.00 - - -
Werriwa (NSW) - 26.0 11.00 21.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Whitlam (NSW) - 16.0 12.00 26.00 - - 1.01 - - -
Wide Bay (QLD) - 15.0 1.07 26.00 - - 7.00 - - -
Wills (VIC) - 41.0 31.00 4.50 - - 1.16 - - -
Wright (QLD) - 21.0 1.01 26.00 - - 13.00 - - -

Complete list of Seat Probabilities

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Wills (VIC) 2.14 2.83 19.48 - - 75.56 - Labor
Batman (VIC) 3.34 3.34 28.96 - - 64.36 - Labor
Port Adelaide (SA) 3.17 3.92 3.92 - - 81.51 7.48 Labor
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 - Independent
Cunningham (NSW) 6.62 4.10 4.10 - - 85.19 - Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 - Green
Fowler (NSW) 5.45 4.15 4.15 - - 86.26 - Labor
Sydney (NSW) 3.37 4.17 17.53 - - 74.92 - Labor
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 - Labor
Wakefield (SA) 3.12 5.07 3.12 - - 75.16 13.53 Labor
Melbourne Ports (VIC) 3.18 5.17 16.53 - - 75.13 - Labor
Makin (SA) 3.18 5.17 3.18 - - 76.64 11.82 Labor
Scullin (VIC) 3.26 5.30 10.61 - - 80.82 - Labor
Gelibrand (VIC) 3.28 5.32 7.10 - - 84.31 - Labor
Corio (VIC) 5.35 5.35 5.35 - - 83.95 - Labor
Gorton (VIC) 3.33 5.42 5.42 - - 85.83 - Labor
Chifley (NSW) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 - Labor
Fenner (ACT) 4.15 5.45 4.15 - - 86.26 - Labor
Fremantle (WA) 3.24 6.48 20.06 - - 70.22 - Labor
Brand (WA) 3.34 6.67 4.13 - - 85.86 - Labor
Kingston (SA) 3.22 6.98 3.22 - - 76.12 10.47 Labor
Whitlam (NSW) 5.32 7.10 3.28 - - 84.31 - Labor
Jagajaga (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Ballarat (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Hotham (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Holt (VIC) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Oxley (QLD) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Rankin (QLD) 4.11 7.19 3.32 - - 85.39 - Labor
Shortland (NSW) 3.32 7.19 4.11 - - 85.39 - Labor
Newcastle (NSW) 5.11 7.24 4.14 - - 83.52 - Labor
Canberra (ACT) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 - Labor
Hunter(NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 - Labor
Blaxland (NSW) 3.34 7.24 3.34 - - 86.07 - Labor
Calwell (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
Lalor (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
Maribyrnong (VIC) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
Werriwa (NSW) 3.30 7.79 4.08 - - 84.83 - Labor
McMahon (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 - Labor
Watson (NSW) 3.32 7.85 3.32 - - 85.51 - Labor
Moreton (QLD) 3.16 9.65 3.91 - - 78.15 5.13 Labor
Kingsford Smith (NSW) 3.21 9.81 7.58 - - 79.40 - Labor
Isaacs (VIC) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - Labor
Lilley (QLD) 3.33 10.18 4.12 - - 82.38 - Labor
Blair (QLD) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - Labor
Barton (NSW) 3.35 10.26 3.35 - - 83.04 - Labor
Franklin (TAS) 3.23 10.51 7.65 - - 78.61 - Labor
Perth (WA) 1.69 10.75 4.09 - - 83.47 - Labor
Chisholm (VIC) 3.35 13.39 4.14 - - 79.12 - Labor
Bendigo (VIC) 3.34 14.46 3.34 - - 78.87 - Labor
Griffith (QLD) 2.56 14.51 3.79 - - 79.14 - Labor
Parramatta (NSW) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 - Labor
Bruce (VIC) 3.24 16.86 3.24 - - 76.65 - Labor
Greenway (NSW) 3.29 17.10 3.29 - - 76.33 - Labor
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 - Labor
Kennedy (QLD) 3.22 19.72 3.22 - 69.84 3.99 - KAP (Bob Katter)
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 - Independent
Adelaide (SA) 3.21 20.85 3.97 - - 62.71 9.27 Labor
Paterson (NSW) 5.05 22.91 3.30 - - 68.73 - Labor
McEwen (VIC) 3.35 25.59 4.14 - - 66.92 - Labor
Lingiari (NT) 4.81 27.59 3.94 - - 63.66 - Labor
Capricornia (QLD) 3.34 28.96 3.34 - - 64.36 - Labor
Petrie (QLD) 3.38 29.32 2.15 - - 65.15 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.25 33.85 3.25 - - 48.36 11.28 Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.33 34.68 3.33 0.86 - 57.80 - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 - Labor
Burt (WA) 2.68 40.45 - - - 56.88 - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 3.93 41.29 2.43 - - 47.19 5.16 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 - Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 45.02 1.77 - - 51.45 - Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 - Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 - Coalition
Page (NSW) 3.39 50.32 8.01 - - 38.29 - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 3.26 52.07 3.26 - - 41.40 - Coalition
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 - Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 - Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 3.12 54.12 3.87 - - 33.82 5.07 Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.78 59.43 3.31 - - 34.47 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - Coalition
New England (NSW) 3.08 61.62 3.08 29.13 - 3.08 - Coalition
Leichhardt (QLD) 6.97 61.94 3.22 - - 27.87 - Coalition
Dickson (QLD) 3.34 64.36 3.34 - - 28.96 - Coalition
Flynn (QLD) 5.37 66.08 2.53 - - 26.03 - Coalition
Herbert (QLD) 4.17 67.42 3.37 - - 25.04 - Coalition
Boothby (SA) 3.18 68.86 3.18 - - 11.02 13.77 Coalition
Sturt (SA) - 69.52 3.07 - - 11.42 15.99 Coalition
Bass (TAS) 3.36 69.96 3.36 - - 23.32 - Coalition
Longman (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 - Coalition
Dawson (QLD) 3.31 71.82 3.31 - - 21.55 - Coalition
Pearce (WA) 3.32 71.99 4.11 - - 20.57 - Coalition
Higgins (VIC) 3.22 72.78 11.16 - - 5.23 7.61 Coalition
Hinkler (QLD) 5.68 74.02 3.27 - - 17.03 - Coalition
Casey (VIC) 3.33 74.07 3.33 - - 19.26 - Coalition
Mayo (SA) 3.90 74.44 2.64 - - 2.64 16.38 Coalition
Warringah (NSW) 8.78 74.54 3.04 - - 3.76 9.88 Coalition
Bowman (QLD) 5.12 75.70 3.35 - - 15.83 - Coalition
Ryan (QLD) 3.27 77.26 5.31 - - 14.16 - Coalition
Grey (SA) 3.05 77.64 3.05 - - 11.31 4.95 Coalition
Barker (SA) 3.18 78.67 3.18 - - 3.18 11.80 Coalition
Canning (WA) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 - Coalition
Bennelong (NSW) 3.34 78.87 3.34 - - 14.46 - Coalition
Wide Bay (QLD) 5.64 79.03 3.25 - - 12.08 - Coalition
Fisher (QLD) 5.12 79.13 4.14 - - 11.61 - Coalition
Aston (VIC) 2.48 80.24 3.24 - - 14.04 - Coalition
Calare (NSW) 6.82 81.02 3.15 - - 3.90 5.11 Coalition
Groom (QLD) 6.96 82.65 3.21 - - 3.21 3.97 Coalition
Menzies (VIC) 3.21 82.76 3.21 7.60 - 3.21 - Coalition
Cowper (NSW) 7.69 83.77 3.25 - - 5.29 - Coalition
Moncrieff (QLD) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
Cook (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
Mitchell (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
Wentworth (NSW) 5.31 84.08 5.31 - - 5.31 - Coalition
McMillan (VIC) 4.11 84.71 3.32 - - 7.85 - Coalition
Farrer (NSW) 7.13 84.72 4.07 - - 4.07 - Coalition
O'Connor (WA) 5.38 85.15 4.10 - - 5.38 - Coalition
Durack (WA) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Mackellar (NSW) - 85.39 3.32 7.19 - 4.11 - Coalition
Tangney (WA) - 85.39 4.11 7.19 - 3.32 - Coalition
Riverina (NSW) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Hughes (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Mallee (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Wannon (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Flinders (VIC) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Gippsland (VIC) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Bradfield (NSW) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
McPherson (QLD) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Maranoa (QLD) 7.19 85.39 3.32 - - 4.11 - Coalition
Moore (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Forrest (WA) 4.11 85.39 3.32 - - 7.19 - Coalition
Fadden (QLD) 5.42 85.83 3.33 - - 5.42 - Coalition
Curtin (WA) 3.33 85.83 5.42 - - 5.42 - Coalition
Wright (QLD) 4.13 85.86 3.34 - - 6.67 - Coalition
Fairfax (QLD) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - Coalition
Berowra (NSW) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - Coalition
Parkes (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Lyne (NSW) 7.24 86.07 3.34 - - 3.34 - Coalition
Kooyong (VIC) 3.34 86.07 3.34 - - 7.24 - Coalition
North Sydney (NSW) 4.15 86.26 4.15 - - 5.45 - Coalition
Hume (NSW) 4.17 86.63 3.37 - - 5.83 - Coalition
Goldstein (VIC) 3.37 86.75 2.58 - - 7.30 - Coalition
Murray (VIC) 5.00 88.11 3.08 - - 3.81 - Coalition

Greens in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Grayndler (NSW) 3.30 5.05 25.62 - - 66.03 - Labor
Batman (VIC) 3.34 3.34 28.96 - - 64.36 - Labor
Melbourne (VIC) 3.35 4.14 82.85 - - 9.67 - Green

Xenophon Team in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate

Independent in with a chance (ie. on a probability greater than 25 per cent)

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
New England (NSW) 3.08 61.62 3.08 29.13 - 3.08 - Coalition
Indi (VIC) 3.08 20.64 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 - Independent
Denison (TAS) 3.18 3.94 3.94 75.17 - 13.78 - Independent

Seats with competing odds on Coalition members

% Any Other Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Liberal National Nick Xenophon Team
Electorate
Murray (VIC) 5.00 3.08 - - 3.81 38.10 50.01 -
Indi (VIC) 3.08 1.57 69.69 - 5.01 7.29 13.36 -

Seats where the 2016 Favorite suggests it might change from one party to another at the 2016 election.

TPP 2013 TCP 2013 2013 Outcome 2016 Favourite
Seat
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1% - Coalition Labor
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8% - Coalition Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9% - Coalition Labor
Fairfax (QLD) - PUP 0.03% v LNP Palmer United Coalition
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6.0% - Coalition Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9% - Coalition Labor
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3% - Coalition Labor
Petrie (QLD) LNP 0.5% - Coalition Labor
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4% - Coalition Labor
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3% - Coalition Coalition, Labor

Close seats (ie. seats with the favorite on a probability of less than 60 per cent).

% Any Other Coalition Green Independent KAP (Bob Katter) Labor Nick Xenophon Team 2016 Favourite
Electorate
Richmond (NSW) 3.34 19.32 17.39 - - 59.95 - Labor
Hindmarsh (SA) 3.25 33.85 3.25 - - 48.36 11.28 Labor
Solomon (NT) 3.33 34.68 3.33 0.86 - 57.80 - Labor
Dobell (NSW) 2.61 35.54 2.61 - - 59.23 - Labor
Burt (WA) 2.68 40.45 - - - 56.88 - Labor
Macarthur (NSW) 3.93 41.29 2.43 - - 47.19 5.16 Labor
Hasluck (WA) 3.28 42.58 4.06 - - 50.09 - Labor
Eden Monaro (NSW) 1.77 45.02 1.77 - - 51.45 - Labor
Swan (WA) 3.29 45.69 5.34 - - 45.69 - Coalition, Labor
Deakin (VIC) 3.27 48.57 5.67 - - 42.50 - Coalition
Corangamite (VIC) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 - Coalition
Banks (NSW) 3.32 49.37 4.11 - - 43.20 - Coalition
Page (NSW) 3.39 50.32 8.01 - - 38.29 - Coalition
Robertson (NSW) 2.35 50.81 11.40 - - 35.45 - Coalition
Reid (NSW) 3.26 52.07 3.26 - - 41.40 - Coalition
Cowan (WA) 3.40 52.98 3.40 - - 40.22 - Coalition
Brisbane (QLD) 3.32 53.31 4.11 - - 39.26 - Coalition
La Trobe (Vic) 3.33 54.09 4.12 - - 38.46 - Coalition
Lindsay (NSW) 3.12 54.12 3.87 - - 33.82 5.07 Coalition
Lyons (TAS) 5.33 55.06 3.28 - - 36.32 - Coalition
Macquarie (NSW) 3.21 55.64 3.21 - - 37.94 - Coalition
Bonner (QLD) 3.26 56.58 3.26 - - 36.90 - Coalition
Dunkley (VIC) 2.20 57.21 2.92 - - 37.67 - Coalition
Forde (QLD) 3.36 58.30 3.36 - - 34.98 - Coalition
Gilmore (NSW) 2.78 59.43 3.31 - - 34.47 - Coalition
Braddon (TAS) 4.10 59.44 3.31 - - 33.15 - Coalition
Stirling (WA) 3.31 59.68 3.31 - - 33.70 - Coalition

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