Friday, June 24, 2016

Prediction markets update

Finally, we are at the penultimate Friday in the election campaign.

Today's odds

House Coalition Odds ($) Labor Odds ($) Coalition Win Probability (%)
2016-06-24 Betfair 1.15 6.51 84.99
2016-06-24 CrownBet 1.15 5.50 82.71
2016-06-24 Ladbrokes 1.12 6.00 84.27
2016-06-24 Luxbet 1.14 5.60 83.09
2016-06-24 Sportsbet 1.15 5.50 82.71
2016-06-24 William Hill 1.12 6.00 84.27

Followed by a table of the derived win probabilities (in per cent) over the past week. Please note my automated data collection system for TABtouch has fallen over.

Fr 17-Jun Sa 18-Jun Su 19-Jun Mo 20-Jun Tu 21-Jun We 22-Jun Th 23-Jun Fr 24-Jun
Betfair 84.61 85.10 83.78 84.99 84.88 84.61 81.70 84.99
CrownBet 80.10 80.10 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71 82.71
Ladbrokes 83.33 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.51 84.27 84.27
Luxbet 84.80 84.15 84.15 84.80 84.80 83.45 83.45 83.09
Sportsbet 84.80 84.80 84.80 84.26 84.26 84.26 82.71 82.71
TABtouch 80.40 - - - - - - -
William Hill 81.17 82.83 84.15 84.15 84.15 84.15 82.71 84.27
Average 82.74 83.58 84.02 84.24 84.22 83.95 82.92 83.67

And the associated charts.





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